NDU-K Research Reports

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    Boda-Boda Informal Transport Sector and National Security: A Comparative Analysis of the Evolution of Security Threats in Kenya
    (National Defence University-Kenya, 2026-07-24) Ngari, D. N.; Kondoltiony, E. P.; Maingi, G.; Macharia, Lilian; Sidha, Zedekia; Masibayi, Edward; Njeru, Jacqueline; Kahiri, E. W.
    The boda-boda informal transport sector has become an important part of Kenya’s economy by providing mobility, employment, and livelihood opportunities, especially for young people. Despite its socio-economic significance, the sector has increasingly been associated with insecurity, including robbery, theft, assault, smuggling, extortion, and other forms of criminal activity. Existing studies have largely examined boda-boda transport from the perspectives of mobility, livelihoods, and road safety, with limited attention to how criminal activity within the sector evolves from incidental misuse into more organised forms with wider implications for public order, institutional legitimacy, and national security. This study comparatively examined the evolution of security threats within the boda-boda informal transport sector across selected counties in Kenya. Specifically, the study analysed the manifestations and patterns of boda-boda related crime, examined the indicators that distinguish incidental criminal use from organised criminal activity, evaluated the socio-economic factors associated with such crime, assessed the institutional and contextual conditions that facilitate organised criminal evolution, and examined the spatial distribution, concentration, and hotspot patterns of boda-boda-related crime. The study adopted a mixed-methods comparative research design with a convergent logic, integrating quantitative, qualitative, observational, document-review, and GIS-based spatial approaches. A two-county pilot study in Nairobi and Migori was used to test the clarity, validity, reliability, field practicality, ethical sensitivity, and spatial-data readiness of the instruments before the main study. The pilot confirmed that the instruments could capture urban/metropolitan, rural, peri-urban, lake side, and border-related boda-boda security dynamics, while also indicating the need to strengthen category standardisation, skip logic, coordinate validation, and interviewer guidance for sensitive questions. The quantitative component involved boda-boda riders and generated data on the prevalence, patterns, and correlates of boda-boda-related crime. The qualitative component drew on key informants, focus group discussions, document review, and observation to provide deeper insight into the meanings, processes, institutional dynamics, and contextual realities associated with the emergence and evolution of such crime. GIS-based spatial analysis was used to examine the geographical distribution, concentration, and hotspot patterns of boda-boda-related crime. Quantitative data were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics, qualitative data were analysed thematically, and spatial data were analysed through mapping and hotspot analysis. Findings from the three strands were integrated during interpretation. The study contributes to academic knowledge by providing a county-comparative framework for understanding how boda boda related insecurity evolves under different socio-economic, institutional, and spatial conditions. It also generated policy-relevant evidence to support precise, proportionate, and context-sensitive interventions by national and county actors without criminalising the broader boda-boda livelihood system
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    Research Report on the Place of Fake News, Misinformation and Disinformation on Governance in Kenya
    (National Defence University-Kenya, 2025-10) Obim, L.; Mailu, Stephen N.; Ombati, E.; Ojwang, D.; Mwatela, Raphael Z.; Nyadera, Israel; Odote, Peterlinus; Wendo, Dickens; Bitok, K.; Kirani, A.; Jepchirchir, J.
    In this digital era, the speed, scope and reach of information have exponentially expanded. This source of information for global audiences has emerged from a complex ecosystem, with traditional news media sources often taking a backseat. This information can be either factual or, in some instances, is fake, to misinform and disinform consumers. Such types of information are referred to as either Fake News, Misinformation, or Disinformation (FMD). FMD has been used and its impact studied in the election process and politics in general, although its implications on governance in Kenya are unclear. It is estimated that these phenomena affect trust or mistrust in institutions of governance, which in turn hinders effective governance and thereby poses a threat to national security and development of Kenya, as well as their ability or otherwise to impede government policy formulation as well as execution. The President of the Republic of Kenya is quoted as being concerned that FMD has affected public trust in institutions of government and the government’s ability to function correctly. While it is apparent that FMD has an impact on governance, the true extent of this impact is unclear. This study, therefore, attempted to answer the question of how FMD has affected the ability of the government to properly function, implement its policies and drive its agenda with a view to proposing strategies that can mitigate its negative impact on governance in Kenya. The study proposes some key policy interventions to mitigate the negative impacts of FMD on governance in Kenya. At the top of the list is the restructuring of government communication from the national to the county level that will promptly and factually relay government policy initiatives and debunk any cases of FMD. This should incorporate NGAO officers as they are the face of government at the regional and local levels. Secondly, the government, through the Government Delivery Unit, should eliminate policy lag, that is, the period it takes between a public pronouncement and execution of government policies, to build trust and seal gaps that get filled with FMD. Key findings indicate that FMD plays a role in governance in Kenya through its drivers and impact. Key drivers include the rise of social media, low digital literacy on FMD, political and economic factors, a disjointed and inadequate government communication, government policy lag and foreign actors. The impact of FMD on governance in Kenya includes erosion of public trust in institutions of government and initiatives, policy resistance by the public, socio-political polarisation and delayed government initiatives. iv While the government has governance instruments in place to curb FMD spread, the study aimed to assess the effectiveness of these instruments. Findings indicate that these instruments fall short of attaining their objectives. Regulatory frameworks available, including the Computer Misuse & Cybercrimes Act (Cap. 79C), the Kenya Information and Communication Act (Cap. 411A), and the Data Protection Act (Cap. 411C), are inconsistently applied. An attempt at an inter-agency coordination mechanism to combat FMD is available through the National Cyber Crime Coordination Committee (NC4). However, its capability is hindered by a lack of constitutional backing to ‘police the cyberspace’. Other instruments, such as a factchecking system utilising technology and cybersecurity controls, were also examined. On fact-checking, the government lacks a system to detect and flag FMD posts, while technology companies are not motivated to self-check as there is no legal requirement to do so. Regarding cybersecurity controls, it was noted that while the physical borders of the republic are manned and controlled, cyberspace is a free-for-all arena and lacks cyber-sovereignty through a national cyber defence capability. The study proposes some key policy interventions to mitigate the negative impacts of FMD on governance in Kenya. At the top of the list is the restructuring of government communication from the national to county level that will promptly and factually relay government policy initiatives and debunk any cases of FMD. This should incorporate NGAO officers as they are the face of government at the regional and local levels. Secondly, the government, through the Government Delivery Unit, should eliminate policy lag, that is, the period it takes between a public pronouncement and execution of government policies, to build trust with the public and seal gaps that get filled with FMD.. Another policy recommendation involves platform accountability and technological solutions, requiring digital platforms to detect and reduce FMD through self-regulation. The governments also need to employ a whole-of-government, whole-of-society approach by bringing on board like-minded partners both within government and in the larger community to address FMD. If the communities are on board, that will be the most effective way to address the menace of FMD in our society. Other policy recommendations include deployment of tools, technologies and early warning systems, including cyber defences to enhance cyber sovereignty, enhancement of media and digital literacy campaigns on FMD for citizens, including ‘see, reflect, then post’, reforming the education curriculum to foster civic upbringing and public sensitisation forums like barazas, among others. Lastly, the government needs to establish social media regulations that align with existing constitutional safeguards, compelling technology companies to moderate and remove FMD content that misleads the public, and specify fines for non-compliance within a specified period. These regulations should focus on selfregulation of the digital platform sector or co-regulation with the government as appropriate. They will aim v at balancing rights with safety in cyberspace, while limiting the negative impacts of FMD. In conclusion, FMD's role in governance is its contribution to the erosion of public trust in government institutions and policy resistance by the public, all aimed at discrediting the government and portraying it in a bad light. A multi-pronged approach is required to address the phenomenon.