Great Power Competition in the Horn of Africa and Kenya’s National Security Interests

This study assessed the impact of great powers competition in the Horn of Africa (HoA) region on Kenya’s national security interests in the period between 2010 to 2022. During this period, the HoA witnessed intense moments for, among other things, competition for its mineral resources, strategic seaports for commercial purposes, and hydrocarbons. More broadly, burgeoning literature categorizes the extreme global power competition in the region as a ‘second scramble for Africa.’ China, the United States of America (USA), and periodically Russia have been pointed as the key global powers jostling for influence in the HoA region. The study thus adopted realism as the theoretical lens to explain how the aforesaid great power competition impacted on Kenya’s national security interest. The study adopted qualitative research design with primary data collected by Key Informants Interview (KII) and Focus Discussion Groups (FGD) methods. Secondary data was further used to respond to the study’s research question. Both qualitative and quantitative methods were utilized to analyze the data. The study made the assumption that the advancement of the great powers in the HoA region impacted negatively on Kenya’s national security interests. Upon this, the study not only attempted to address the existing gap in the literature but also sought to proffer approaches and strategies that Kenya could use to promote her national security interests in the HoA region and beyond. The research determined that relationship existed between great power competition in the HoA region and Kenya’s national security interests. Further, the results indicated that the relationship was both positive and negative departing from the assumption made during the research that only negative impact existed. Moreover, the study showed that there were multiple dimensions to comprehending Kenya’s national security interests within the context of great power rivalry in the region. Specifically, the realities of great power competition in the region dictated some of Kenya’s strategies for advancing her national security interests. Accordingly, the study concluded that the geopolitical rivalry in the region significantly impacted on Kenya’s national security interests, and in the process necessitating the need for Kenya to continually develop strategies to mitigate against the aforesaid in addition to maximizing on the resultant opportunities. The study recommended that Kenya needed to continually redesign her strategies to address the impact of great power rivalry on her national security interests in view of the evolving interests and dynamics that shaped great power competition. The research further recommended that more studies be done on the effectiveness of the various strategies that Kenya deployed to deal with the impact of great power competition on her national security interest.